Lee Lowenfish

No doubt the schedule came at the right time to help my scuffling Orioles. Although my Birds couldn't sweep either the tail-end Colorado Rockies in Denver or the historically bad Chicago White Sox at home, at least they won each series. And even won 3 games in a row for the first time since June.  

 

It is a very strange AL East pennant race this season.  It's remarkable how since the early summer neither the Orioles or Yankees have managed to play like a real World Series contender. With the demotion of Yankee closer Clay Holmes and the season-long doubt on who really can close for Baltimore, both teams have question marks in a key area of the bullpen.

 

Since I last posted, the injury bug has again bitten the Orioles, two in the same Sat night Aug 31 game in Colorado. Third baseman Ramon Urias, who had provided an unexpected offensive boost in August, sprained an ankle when he stumbled on the third base bag trying to make a tag on a Colorado base stealer.

 

Earlier that game, starting pitcher Dean Kremer got smoked just above the wrist on his pitching hand by a 103-mph one-hopper hit by Colorado

outfielder Jordan Beck.  Rarely does a couch potato like yours truly see the swelling come up immediately on the TV screen but it did in this case.   

 

Kremer, the only dual citizen-Israeli-American player in MLB history, is vowing to not miss a turn which manager Brandon Hyde calls "incredible".

Sure enough he plans to start on Friday Sep 6 in the opener of a home series against the Tampa Bay Rays. 

 

I am not a big one for highlighting strength of schedule in the last month of the season. IT'S HOW YOU ARE PLAYING, NOT WHO YOU ARE PLAYING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. 

 

After Tampa Bay, Orioles go on to Fenway to play fading Red Sox whose recent offensive drought has surprised me - their pitching and their overall defense doesn't seem ready for prime time.   

 

Over the weekend of Sep 13, Birds go on to Detroit for 3 games, a .500 team playing much better these days. The Tigers also have the leading contender for AL Cy Young award, southpaw Tarik Skubal.  The Baltimore final home stand consists of 3 with the SF Giants Sep 17-19 and then the final home games of the regular season against the Tigers. 

 

The Orioles wind up season on the road - 3 big night games at Yankee Stadium likely to determine AL East winner, Tu-Th Sep 24-26. Then to Minnesota to play an inconsistent, oft-injured Twins team fighting for a wild card with Kansas City.  Cleveland seems to be in driver's seat to win AL Central with 4 game lead on Minnesota, 5 over KC before games of Fri Sep 6. 

 

The Yankee September schedule starts with 3 at the Cubs Sept 6-8, then 3 big ones back home against the Royals, then 4 with the Red Sox Sept 13-16.  Then a road trip to the west coast at Seattle Sep 17-19, three at Oakland Sep 20-22 with the A's .

 

All things considered, Oakland has had a good season, given their pending move to Sacramento for three seasons until the supposed new stadium in Las Vegas is built.  Mark Kotsay will get some deserved Manager of the Year votes but I think Cleveland's rookie skipper Stephen Vogt has to be

considered the leading candidate. 

 

Yankees return home for the 3 big night games against the Orioles. Yankees have an edge in that they host fading Pirates for the last three games.  I kinda doubt that Pittsburgh will send out possible NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes in one of those games.  

 

At least the Pirates have announced that Skenes will pitch deep into September to get the experience of competing in the climactic month of regular season, something the Buccos have sadly not enjoyed first-hand for too long.  (As promising as Skenes looks, it will be hard to deny ROY award to the Padres' productive center fielder Jackson Merrill.) 

 

In the National League races, the Dodgers, Phillies, and Brewers have almost clinched division titles but there is quite a wild card crunch coming among Padres, Diamondbacks, Braves, and Mets. One of those teams will not make it - as of morning of Sep 6, only 2 games separated them. 

 

I have been tardy in not giving props to the Mets' resurgence.  Stuck at 22-33 in first half of season, they are now a bona fide wild card contender.

If Shohei Ohtani were not also in the National League, shortstop Francisco Lindor would be an MVP favorite.

 

He's been playing sensationally on both sides of the ball and even came up with a great quote after he won an eleven-pitch AB in the Aug 29 win over the also resurgent defending-NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks.   "I GET PAID TO HIT THE BALL FORWARD," Lindor said.

 

The arrival of veteran infielder Jose Iglesias has provided spark and levity to a team that seemed to lack it.  The starting pitching has settled in

with Sean Manaea and former number one draft pick David Peterson really looking good.  If Edwin Diaz at the back end of the bullpen can get

the saves, they could be a dangerous team in the playoffs. 

 

I've often been a critic of the so-called balanced schedule that reduced intra-division games from 19 to 13.  It turns out though that the Mets play 4 of their final series against NL East teams.   After the Reds at home Sep 6-8 and Blue Jays on road, they go to Philly and return to play Washington

and Philadelphia again, the last home regular season series Sep 20-22. 

 

Then likely a very big series at Atlanta Sep 24-26 - as I post on morning Fri Sep 6, Mets are tied with Braves for 3rd wild card.

Mets wind up with 3 with Brewers in Milwaukee, the runaway winners of the NL Central. There will likely be more pressure on Mets at this time because Brewers would only be playing for best record in the National League. 

 

Best advice for baseball in September still comes from legendary Mets broadcaster Bob Murphy:  "Fasten your seat belts."    

 

Now it's time for a new feature . . .  LEE LOW'S TIPS OF CAP!

**Mets cable channel, SNY.TV, featured a fascinating interview in late August with former Mets reliever/now broadcaster Jerry Blevins and Mets rookie third baseman Mark Vientos. In separate segments, they interviewed each other about their careers.  It was not typical pap but provided frank and revealing insights.  I hope it can be accessed on the sny.tv website.

 

**"I don't want flowers at my retirement," tennis star Danielle Collins explained last week after turning down an offering from tennis officials when she lost her singles match last week at the US Open.   She said she didn't want to be like the character Gaylord in "Meet The Parents," the 2004 film in which Ben Stiller plays the son of doting parents that fills his bedroom with runner-up trophies.

 

**Speaking of tennis, here's to the two Americans who made or will make the men's and women's finals for the first time since 2002:

Jennifer Pegula who plays Belorussian Aryna Sabalenka in the women's final on Sa Sep 7 at 4P EDT on ESPN

 

**And either Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe who play each other on F Sep 6 at 7P on ESPN

The winner meets either highly-favored Italian Jannik Sinner or English southpaw Jack Draper on Fri Sep 6 an 3P on ESPN

Men's final will be Su Sep 6 at 2P on ABC network - rebroadcast at 830P that night on ESPN2. 

  

That's all for now - my mantras remain:  Stay positive test negative & Take it easy but take it.  

 

It is always a bittersweet time when the precious days of September fade away.  The autumn leaves tell us that winter is not behind and even worse, that the regular season of baseball is over.

 

The Orioles' improbable run into contention surprised everyone, certainly yours truly who was glad by summer to ditch my alter ego of Masochist Mel.  Alas, another alter ego, Pessimistic Pete, lurks nearby

because there are no guarantees for 2023.

 

The Birds still need more reliable starting pitching that can go deep into games and more consistent hitting to truly contend in a tough AL East Division.  I know that the number of intra-division games will

be cut from 19 to 13 in 2023 - not the greatest idea BTW - but you still must win the majority of

your games and get comfortably over .500 which the 2022 Orioles never could do.  

 

And repeat after me, class:  EVERY SEASON IS DIFFERENT. There is still much to dream about - full

seasons from catcher Adley Rutschman - voted the Oriole MVP though I would have picked spectacularly-fielding shortstop Jorge Mateo in a very close vote - and versatile infielder 21-year-old Gunnar Henderson.

 

I saw Henderson play last year in the lower minors and twice this year at Norfolk.  You could see not only the talent but his love of the game in his every movement on the field and in the dugout.  Same is true of Rutschman who is reminscent of Gary Carter in his joy in catching.

 

And get this!  Henderson's older brother is an Orioles fan.  Natives of Alabama, Gunnar couldn't

wait to come to Baltimore to hear the Oriole fans shout "O!" near the last lines of the National Anthem.

That note has dwindled in the recent years of losing, but it is definitely making a comeback.

 

I happily report that I now wear my Oriole jacket again - it led to an interesting encounter a few days ago. I was sitting on a bench in Riverside Park near the Columbia campus reading a book when a man walking a dog gave me a thumbs up for my baseball allegiance. 

 

It turned out that not only was he an Oriole fan but I had seen his son on TV a couple of nights earlier.  Watching the Red Sox feed on my MLB Extra Innings package, the Boston announcers kept replaying the shot of a fan in an Oriole cap botching a home run catch in the bleachers.

 

Earlier he had caught one easily but not this time. and was he ever mad at himself.  And does TV ever love to focus on the agory of defeat as well as the ecstasy of victory.   

 

It turns out that the 30-something fellow, a graduate of Manhattan College, is virtually a professional ball game attendee.  He drove with his father to that Monday night game.  Because there was a long rain delay, they didn't return to NYC until 4AM.

 

The father, Shelley Barasch, told me that Greg always gets over 10 baseballs at every game, mostly during batting practice.  They intend to drive to the season's last game at Fenway to get in on the giveaways of jerseys, batting gloves, more baseballs, and other memorabilia.  

 

I wished them luck and we saluted each other's Oriole fandom. He walked back to his apartment

and I continued reading the deeply moving book "1947: Where Now Begins," published in 2016 by Swedish writer Elisabeth Asbrink (translated by Fiona Graham).  Rarely have I have read such a combination of poetic memoir and historically keen observation.   

 

A few minutes later Shelley came back to the park bench with a gift that I will treasure, a baseball from Greg's collection. O, those little things that make baseball-loving so special. 

 

And while I have the Red Sox on my mind, here's to a good retirement for Dennis Eckersley, 65, who I was glad I could hear on that Red Sox-Oriole broadcast.  The Hall of Fame pitcher developed an unique

language as a commentator.  

 

He was the one who coined "walkoff" homer to describe a game-winning blast.

Here's another Eckersley coinage, describing a pitcher's statistical line:

   "9 strikeouts, 7 swinging, 2 pairs of shoes" (i.e., just standing at the plate, not swinging the bat).

 

Eckersley, of course, gave up one of the most famous walkoffs to the LA Dodgers' Kirk Gibson in the first game of the 1988 World Series, but he survived to have more good years.  

 

TIME TO WARILY PUT ON PREDICTION CAP!

The 12-team October playoffs begin on Friday October 8 with four best-of-three wild card series.  I don't bet although TV and MLB certainly want me and millions of others to do so. Here's two examples:

 

An ad on the Yankees' YES network for a betting service show a man sitting on a toilet seat placing bets on his cellphone.  At the Mets' CitiField, the lines for the third base coaching box are now dwarfed by a huge plug for Caesar's Sports Book.

 

I still want to put in my 37 cents of playoff predictions (my two cents corrected for inflation).

 

I will go with the home teams in the wild cards - Tampa Bay bowing to Cleveland the youngest team in the playoffs with a great manager in Terry Francona (who everyone calls Tito after his late father a former MLB slugger); solid if playoff-inexperienced pitching; two infielders they got from the Mets for Francisco Lindor, Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario, both having excellent years; and a fertile player development system.

 

They also have third baseman Jose Ramirez who in any other year would be a top-rank MVP candidate.

(Aaron Judge will win with Shohei Ohtani getting some votes, but I for one cannot see how even a

great hitting-pitching talent like Ohtani can be most valuable on a bad team.)

 

That Jose Ramirez decided to stay in Cleveland on a long-term contract was a refreshing sign that not every player wants to come to the highest-paying big market cities.  I just hope Cleveland gets crowds

approaching 30,000 for the games against Tampa Bay. 

 

I think Toronto, my pre-season pick to win the AL East, will prevail over Seattle, the Mariners in playoffs for first time since 2001.  But the Blue Jays must run the bases better than they did recently against the Yankees.

 

One of my favorite Jays is stocky catcher/DH Alejandro Kirk signed out of high school in Tijuana. He appears to be the picture of grizzled experience at the plate but he won't be 23 until next month. 

 

In the NL wild cards, I think the Mets have had enough time to lick their wounds from Atlanta's sweep last weekend to beat the Padres in New York. Deeper starts from Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom will be needed and the red-hot closer Edwin Diaz must stay at his near-perfection level.  

 

A return to health of Mets outfielder Sterling Marte would be welcome but finger fractures are tricky

things and he may not be ready.  The Padres rallied late in the season behind their new veteran manager Bob Melvin and even beat their nemesis Dodgers a couple of times to insure they made the playoffs.  

 

I hope Yu Darvish does well because I think the Iranian-Japanese righthander is one of baseball's more endearing players. But I hope the Mets prevail in what certainly will not be a slam dunk because the Mets offense without Marte has been sputtering.

 

Solid shortsotp Francisco Lindor needs to step it up and add his offense to power-hitting Pete Alonso and potential batting champion champ Jeff McNeil - a versatile, intense easy-to-root-for mainstay. Otherwise, there are too many holes in the lineup.  

 

The Cardinals should hold off the Phillies in St. Louis but their pitching is not proven except for aging Adam Wainwright. He is one of three grand old men along with retiring slugger Albert Pujols and catcher Yadier Molina that may make the Cardinals a sentimental favorite.  

 

St. Louis also features two potent corner men, third baseman Nolan Arenado and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Likely Hall of Famers along with sure-fire immortals Molina and Pujols who passed the

700 career HR mark late this season.  

 

The Cardinals' nabbing Arenado from Colorado and Goldschmidt from Arizona, two chronic losing franchises, reflects the sad state of those expansion franchises .  The Rockies and Diamondbacks have gotten little in return, but baseball history is replete with the rich picking on the poor and the bright on the dumb and some things may never change.   

 

In the best-of-five division series, picks are less clear to me.  I'd like to see a Cleveland-Houston

best-of-seven in the ALCS with Dusty Baker going all the way to win his first World Series as a manager.

In fact, it could well be that we have a repeat of 2021, an Atlanta-Houston World Series with

the Astros this time coming out on top. 

 

The Cardinals will have to face the Braves if they win the wild card series and the Mets the Dodgers

if they win, and both rested teams will be favored with the home field advantage. The Dodgers are

loaded as usual with baseball's largest payroll and a playoff-tested roster.  

 

But they have question marks at closer and in the starting rotation so their advance is not a slam dunk.

Such a sign of the times - me using basketball terminology to describe baseball! I love basketball

but it is not baseball.   

 

The Yankees bullpen is a work in progress with no consistent closer.  A return to form of pending free agent Aroldis Chapman would be a godsend. They probably have enough to beat Cleveland.

 

After its August slumber, the Yankee offense has re-emerged. If DJ LeMahieu is healthy and Giancarlo Stanton gets on a roll which is conceivable, the Yankees will be very dangerous.  

 

And, of course, add a relaxed Aaron Judge to that picture. I am very happy he got his 62nd home run to

relieve the pressure building on him.  He should be the face of baseball for his genuine team-

orientation and his humble yet perceptive demeanor.

 

Rumors persist that he might bolt to the West Coast after the season because he is a free agent.  

I personally doubt he will leave, but let's table that emotional discussion into later November when the hot stove fires really start buring. 

 

 

That's all for now.  Always remember: take it easy but take it, and hard as it is sometimes, stay positive, test negative.